Q: Are you analyzing the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela and its implications?
A: “This is the most important event in the past 30 years. Almost no one had predicted it. Many believed Venezuela would become a ‘new Cuba,’ given the nature of its regime. This move will undoubtedly have a major impact on Latin American security going forward.”
A: “This is the most important event in the past 30 years. Almost no one had predicted it. Many believed Venezuela would become a ‘new Cuba,’ given the nature of its regime. This move will undoubtedly have a major impact on Latin American security going forward.”
Q: What specific impacts do you foresee?
A: “First, we could” see an increase in the outflow of migrants from Venezuela. More than eight million people have already left the country, and over 6.5 million of them remain in Latin American countries. Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, and Chile—where most migrants have settled—will face heightened burdens, worsening social and political challenges.
Second, the spread of criminal organizations is another concern. As criminal groups weaken inside Venezuela, they will flee to other countries. This will pose significant challenges for security and border control across Latin America.”
A: “First, we could” see an increase in the outflow of migrants from Venezuela. More than eight million people have already left the country, and over 6.5 million of them remain in Latin American countries. Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, and Chile—where most migrants have settled—will face heightened burdens, worsening social and political challenges.
Second, the spread of criminal organizations is another concern. As criminal groups weaken inside Venezuela, they will flee to other countries. This will pose significant challenges for security and border control across Latin America.”
Q: How do you assess the Trump administration’s decision to pursue military intervention?
A: “The United States has clearly signaled that it does not regard the use of force as taboo. Without stationing U.S. troops, without casualties, and without spending massive sums—this approach aligns with Mr. Trump’s pledge to his supporters that the U.S. ‘will not fight long wars overseas.’
In the short term, U.S. action has positive effects, because Latin American nations are unable to resolve the Venezuelan issue on their own. But in the long term, reliance on power risks weakening international law and international institutions. It could influence Russia’s actions in Ukraine and China’s approach toward Taiwan.”
A: “The United States has clearly signaled that it does not regard the use of force as taboo. Without stationing U.S. troops, without casualties, and without spending massive sums—this approach aligns with Mr. Trump’s pledge to his supporters that the U.S. ‘will not fight long wars overseas.’
In the short term, U.S. action has positive effects, because Latin American nations are unable to resolve the Venezuelan issue on their own. But in the long term, reliance on power risks weakening international law and international institutions. It could influence Russia’s actions in Ukraine and China’s approach toward Taiwan.”
Q: How are Latin American countries reacting?
A: “Reactions vary widely. Right‑wing governments in Argentina, Paraguay, and Ecuador have supported the intervention. Chile’s president‑elect Mr. Kast, who won last December, also expressed support while emphasizing the importance of international law.
In contrast, Cuba, Nicaragua, Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, and Uruguay have criticized the intervention.”
A: “Reactions vary widely. Right‑wing governments in Argentina, Paraguay, and Ecuador have supported the intervention. Chile’s president‑elect Mr. Kast, who won last December, also expressed support while emphasizing the importance of international law.
In contrast, Cuba, Nicaragua, Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, and Uruguay have criticized the intervention.”
Q: As U.S.–China rivalry intensifies, where do Latin American countries position themselves?
A: “They are carefully balancing the distance between the U.S. and China, constantly calibrating their relationships. They share democratic values with the U.S., but they also want to expand economic ties with China. That is the honest sentiment of many countries.
If U.S. pressure grows stronger, maintaining this balance will become more difficult.”
A: “They are carefully balancing the distance between the U.S. and China, constantly calibrating their relationships. They share democratic values with the U.S., but they also want to expand economic ties with China. That is the honest sentiment of many countries.
If U.S. pressure grows stronger, maintaining this balance will become more difficult.”
Q: U.S. policy toward Latin America seems focused on pressure, lacking the ‘carrots’—economic benefits—offered by China.
A: “Exactly. Trump’s diplomacy is inherently transactional and heavily weighted toward sticks—sanctions and pressure. By contrast, China provides tangible benefits: funding, investment, infrastructure, loans. Pressure may work in the short term, but it is not sustainable in the long run.
If the U.S. wishes to compete with China, it must also demonstrate the benefits it can offer.”
A: “Exactly. Trump’s diplomacy is inherently transactional and heavily weighted toward sticks—sanctions and pressure. By contrast, China provides tangible benefits: funding, investment, infrastructure, loans. Pressure may work in the short term, but it is not sustainable in the long run.
If the U.S. wishes to compete with China, it must also demonstrate the benefits it can offer.”
Q: In what fields do you expect the U.S. to focus more on Latin America in the future?
A: “The U.S. will increasingly prioritize investment in strategic sectors—energy, mining, telecommunications, data, ports, and infrastructure. If Latin America becomes dependent on China in these areas, it represents a major risk for the U.S.”
A: “The U.S. will increasingly prioritize investment in strategic sectors—energy, mining, telecommunications, data, ports, and infrastructure. If Latin America becomes dependent on China in these areas, it represents a major risk for the U.S.”
Q: How will Latin American countries shape their relationship with China?
A: “Latin America is not homogeneous. In South America, since 2021 China has become the largest trading partner for many countries—Peru, Chile, Brazil, and Argentina are typical examples.
But in Central America and the Caribbean, U.S. influence remains overwhelming.”
A: “Latin America is not homogeneous. In South America, since 2021 China has become the largest trading partner for many countries—Peru, Chile, Brazil, and Argentina are typical examples.
But in Central America and the Caribbean, U.S. influence remains overwhelming.”
Q: Will Latin America be able to reduce its economic dependence on China in the future?
A: “In the future, they will need to reduce their dependence not only on China but also on the United States. Diversifying export markets and gaining access to third‑party markets—Asia‑Pacific, Gulf countries, and others—will be essential.
The goal is to avoid excessive dependence on the world’s two major powers.”
A: “In the future, they will need to reduce their dependence not only on China but also on the United States. Diversifying export markets and gaining access to third‑party markets—Asia‑Pacific, Gulf countries, and others—will be essential.
The goal is to avoid excessive dependence on the world’s two major powers.”
Q: Conversely, what direction will China’s policy toward Latin America take?
A: “China operates with a long‑term perspective. Whereas leaders in Western democracies look toward the next election, China looks toward the next century.
Chinese investment will become more selective, concentrating on strategic sectors—energy, mining, telecommunications, data, and infrastructure.
However, China’s political influence has limits. Latin America is fundamentally different from the Chinese Communist Party’s system. China’s influence will remain primarily economic.”
A: “China operates with a long‑term perspective. Whereas leaders in Western democracies look toward the next election, China looks toward the next century.
Chinese investment will become more selective, concentrating on strategic sectors—energy, mining, telecommunications, data, and infrastructure.
However, China’s political influence has limits. Latin America is fundamentally different from the Chinese Communist Party’s system. China’s influence will remain primarily economic.”
Fuente Nikkei Asia